G13 was a turning point for UMNO’s political history
When people run short of ideas, they reach out for other things.There’s money, the first crutch of all fools. For all those who lack self esteem, the first argument is: If I had enough money, I could have done it. This is untrue. Money can make nothing happen unless you will it. And you can will nothing without a precise premise, a strategy or game plan that you have clearly thought through. In short, an idea. Without the idea, without the intellectual or emotional muscle that goes with that idea, any idle dream based only on the availability of money is always doomed. That’s why angel investors do due diligence. Not only of the idea to invest in but also of the person who will deliver it. Does he or she have the grit, gumption, dedication and leadership? Or the persistence to see the idea through its initial days when all that can go wrong always does, following Murphy’s Law?
Najib did pull off the trick in 2013
What UMNO need is a collection of unified charismatic leaders to go to the grounds, inspire the young, and persuade the rural Malays to another point of view- one that is in harmony with the rest of right thinking Malaysians. Once that’s done, UMNO will undertake that long and painful journey at self reform,see the lights of the corridors of power ever again.Turning deficits into assets — a skill johari learned in his 20s as a community organizer — could well be called the motto of his rise. With his literary gifts, he transformed aSquatter childhood into a stirring coming-of-age tale. He usedTtiwangsa as the foundation of his political career. He mobilized young people — never an ideal base, because of thin wallets and historically poor turnout — into an energetic army who in turn enlisted parents and grandparents. And even though his exotic name, Joe the plumber, has spurred false rumors and insinuations about his background and beliefs, he has made it a symbol of his singularity and of Titiwangsa’s possibility.When in the course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the Political Bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the Powers of the Earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature’s God entitle them, a decent Respect to the Opinions of Mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the Separation.One of Malaysia’s most well regarded editors recently asked me, albeit rhetorically,why was there no full ministers post for P119 Titiwangsa ever the biggest loser of the just-ended general electionSHOULD NOT BE GIVEN MINISTERS POST take on the election results was revealing- felt that the problem lay in the absence of a strong FT Chinese grassroots … Read more
SELANGOR WAS WON WITH PROMISE OF INCUMBENT MENTRI BESAR TAN SRI KHALID IBRAHIM By this act of Anwar cheating they turned the brightest hour in Selangor’s history into its darkest.
Pakatan’s Azmin Ali has distanced himself from the Kelana Jaya rally and he tweeted: “The rakyat are tired with politics that are over the top. Accept results. Scrutinise yourself. Admit weaknesses. Move forward. Focus on the rakyat, not yourselves.” For Anwar and his PR colleaugues, GE13 would only be clean if they manage to clean sweep all the states and won majority Parliament seats…right? What a standard hypocrisy!
Blame Selangor voters if you have to (blame someone, that is), but this cool dude Anwar isn’t the only one hankering after perfectionism, though he probably made it a cult culture—what may have started off as a character trait in a few, is now an obsession with one too many. As if the existing stresses of life weren’t enough, now we have this absolute craze for perfection to worry about! Everyone, it seems, is driven by some or the other ambition and high achievers no longer constitute a rare breed. But that’s a good thing, a healthy sign of progress, you might say. Sure it is, provided it is not overdone! Unfortunately, perfectionism has captured the people’s collective “zeitgeist” and by Jove, that means trouble ahead, and I am not being the Voice of Doom
Firstly, get your mind straight.
If Khalid is not MB PR. will lose support. Come on DAP ensure the sensible thing is done. It is because of Khalid PR is able to improve performance in Selangor. PAS needs to learn lesson from Kedah. done a Good Job. Khalid Has governed Selangor effectively by having obtained the Cooperation of his fellow State Reps. Why Rock the Boat. The Opposition was most probably voted back in due to this.
Khalid was the best MB Selangor ever had! I voted for PR because of him. Please listen to the Rakyat! Khalid for MB!! Selangor caretaker Menteri Besar Khalid Ibrahim will be reappointed to be MB for the State of Selangor….by 98% of the popular votes!Salute MP Khalid Samad, A person who practice a faithful religion be Islam, Buddhist or others will definitely have the right thinking with open heart to compromise any issue, keep it up and be united PR. I strongly propose Khalid Ibrahim to be reappointed as MB considering the proven track record and expertise which had gain him the creditability. PR, delay no further. Just name Khalid as MB. He has done an excellent job since 2008 and this is shown by the overwhelming support from the Selangor rakyat during the recent GE13 elections. Do not disappoint the rakyat. Let him resolve the water takeover issue. Khalid will deliver! PR hold on Selangor will be strengthened further comes GE14!
Although Pakatan Rakyat swept to power in the state, gaining eight seats for a total of 44 out of 56 in the state assembly, there might be instability as the previously dominant PKR is now the junior partner.
Selangor caretaker Menteri Besar Khalid Ibrahim’s position remains in limbo, as there is no decision yet as to whether or not he will continue to lead the state government.
“But why did DAP win more seats than PAS? Well that is because PAS, PKR and Umno are sharing the 60% Malay votes while DAP monopolises the Chinese voters. Hence DAP gets more than 90% of the Chinese votes (in some saluran it was actually 100%, which shocked Umno) while PAS, PKR and Umno have to split the 60% Malay voters three ways.
And this is what concerns Umno. Umno can see that DAP now has a monopoly on the Chinese votes whereas Umno needs to compete with PAS and PKR for a share of the Malay votes.”
we were having BN vs PR except in Sabah, so where do you get the UMNO need to share or compete for the Malay votes??
We did not have PKR or PAS candiddates where DAP won the seats, did we?
Barisan Nasional was not competing against one single entity as itself. BN was competing against the allies of DAP, PKR and PAS. These three parties were not in a coalition spirit. They have different views and are not in one single entity. So, please review your thought and see how many popular votes won by BN, DAP, PKR and PAS.
Then, you will know that BN is still the popular one.
Whether this opportunity is seized may not only be up to them, it may also be up to us. nstitutionally, Pakatan is not a strong coalition. Those privy to the inside workings of the Pakatan secretariat in the lead-up to GE13 may have some first hand experience of this.
Many worked hard, and many did their best, but I am not sure the top leadership did their efforts and willingness justice. Now is a good time to reverse that trend, and invest more resources, and more importantly, better leadership, into strengthening Pakatan as an actual institution, not a loose coalition.
Let us see what each component party faces, post-GE13.
Where are the Erdogans?
How tragic for so many of us to see the titans of moderation in PAS lose their seats: Dr Dzulkefly Ahmad, Mat Sabu, Husam Musa and Salahuddin Ayub, among others.
This may spark off a crisis in PAS, even as we speak, for PAS faces the realities ahead. Having not made significant inroads into the rural areas, some hardliners in PAS may start to reconsider their prospects in Pakatan.
They may fear that the current trends will only relegate them to junior partner status. I hope they realise, however, that they have a much higher chance of being a senior partner in Pakatan (as in Selangor) than they ever will in Barisan Nasional (BN).
UMNO and PAS share a core demographic base (rural Malaysia), one that is relatively alien to PKR and even more so to DAP.
Staying with Pakatan gives them hope of winning back that base one day, whereas UMNO is unlikely to dilute their own power by sharing it with PAS.
PAS will also lose all hope of winning urban seats if they join BN. Needless to say, the worst part of it is, if PAS were to move to BN, the already worsening racial climate in the country will just become worse.
For PAS, the core challenge will be finding an ideological ‘product’ that will appeal to rural Malaysia while steering clear of the bigotry of UMNO. It will be hard, but perhaps taking a more service oriented approach that emphasises building real grassroots bonds with the community may yield a better result than previous approaches.
Everything will pivot on PAS keeping the faith these next few days and weeks, and then after that, on PAS’ next party . I hope they will not read too deeply into the electoral losses of their key leaders, and instead stay their extremely admirable course.
Grace and Humility in Victory?
What a sweep for DAP – undefeated in Penang and Selangor state assemblies, for starters, and winner of the most seats in Parliament. Luckily, father and son Lim are not inclined to public haughtiness, and they seem to realise the potential minefield of their recent victories.
Perhaps there is not much to say regarding DAP save two short things. Firstly, follow the leadership’s example of humility in victory. At present, it will gain us nothing if DAP wins every seats it contests everywhere, while the rest of the coalition lags behind. Indeed, that may only serve to fan racial flames.
Of course, perhaps this need not always be the case. Granted, it remains to be seen whether DAP can shed its more negative connotations of Chinese chauvinism that go back decades.
Nevertheless, the second point is that all the evidence suggests that they must certainly try. Their new Malay elected representatives are an excellent start, and a trend that begs vast expanding.Imagine if DAP fielded more and more Malay candidates, while PAS fielded more non-Malay candidates? A new Malaysia indeed.
Reforming the reformer?
People like to say PKR is the weakest link. An MP once told me: “It is not the weakest link, it is the only link.” Anwar stated openly and in no uncertain terms that should GE 13 be lost, he will step down and make way for new blood.
If so, then an era of new possibilities for PKR will come to pass. Of course, while it can move in the direction of institutional strengthening and deepening its internal democracy, it can also move in the direction of UMNO style feudalism.
PKR has long been shaped by personalities. Perhaps the time has come for it to be shaped by a combination of grassroot-led determination and leaders who are more statesmen and stateswomen than ambitious politicians – people who realise the importance of building something that will long outlive them.
This may yet be the most involved post-GE13 front, but as a member myself (last I checked) I think it would be wiser for me to leave my commentary at that for now.
On May 5th, millions of Malaysians called out in a single voice that you wanted change. Change from a corrupt regime of UMNO-BN that has held on to power for more than five decades. It was a voice that was strong and clear.
You said to the UMNO-BN leaders: Enough! Enough of corruption and abuse of power! Enough of racism, bad governance and mismanagement of the nation’s wealth! Let Pakatan Rakyat take over now!
But they refused. To stay in power they cheated. They want to continue to rob from the nation. Working hand in glove with the Election Commission they resorted to all kinds of fraud and declared themselves the winner.
Anwar Ibrahim’s statement above is interesting mainly for the reason that it is merely rhetorical but lacks details. Anwar was very vague as to what type of cheating he was referring to. We must remember that most Malaysians do not understand how the electoral process works so this may not only confuse people but will mislead them as well.
If you have worked as an election worker in an election then you would know how the process works. You would then not be satisfied with mere allegations of fraud but would like details about how this fraud was perpetuated.
It is not that easy to cheat during an election but it is possible to cheat before the election. But then some of this cheating is not really cheating. It is called gerrymandering and is quite easy to do plus is perfectly legal. Everyone does it, even in advanced and civilised societies, and that is how parties get into office with less than 40% of the popular vote, but just as long as they win 51% or so of the seats with those 40% votes.
Anwar’s knee-jerk reaction when the results were announced on Sunday night was that Pakatan Rakyat won 51% of the votes so this means Pakatan Rakyat won the election. In 1933, Adolf Hitler won only 43% of the votes and 33% of the seats and yet his party took power. Al Gore won 48.4% of the votes but George W. Bush took power with 47.9% of the votes. In 1969, the Alliance Party won 49% of the votes and still managed to form the government.
So it does not mean if you win 51% of the votes you have won the election. Hence Anwar should not confuse the people by saying that since Pakatan Rakyat won more votes than Barisan Nasional then Pakatan Rakyat won the election. The winner is not based on how many votes you win but by how many seats you win, and Anwar knows this.
Now, how do you run an election to make sure you are not ‘cheated’ and you win? If Anwar does not know the answer then he should just retire. Actually he does know the answer to this question but he is mischievously leaving it vague. And this is very naughty of him.
First of all, you need to buy the list of the registered voters from the Election Commission (SPR). Your election workers then study this list to see whether there are any dubious voters on this list.
For example, you may find 300 voters registered at the same house address. Your election workers then visit this house to determine whether it is true that there are 300 people living in this one house. Most likely there are less than 10 people living in that house so this would mean the 300 registered voters are ‘phantom’ voters.
Now, this does not mean these 300 people do not exist. It could mean these people are living somewhere else but have been ‘moved’ to this area and since they do not have a home in that area they are ‘tompanging’ (‘squatting’) in this address.
These are what they refer to as ‘phantom’ voters — people living somewhere else from where they are registered to vote. But they do exist. They are not really phantoms in the sense they are non-existent people.
If you are sure of winning in a certain area and your majority in that area is traditionally very large (say like Marang in Terengganu), then you can afford to shift some of your voters to the neighbouring area where the situation is normally 50:50 (say like Kuala Terengganu in Terengganu).
You are not worried about Marang. That is PAS President Ustaz Haji Abdul Hadi Awang’s area and no one can defeat him there. But Kuala Terengganu always swings between PAS and Umno (and even Parti Negara and Semangat 46 at one time) so you need to ‘strengthen’ that seat. So you shift some of the Marang voters to Kuala Terengganu so that you can win both seats instead of winning one and losing one.
That was why PAS won 15 of the 32 state seats in Terengganu (Umno won 17) and 4 of the 8 parliamentary seats (a tie). PAS very cleverly spread out their voters.
Kelantan is another case in point. Thousands of Kelantanese no longer live in Kelantan. They work and live all over Malaysia, many even in Singapore. But they do not transfer their place of voting to where they work/live. They remain registered in Kelantan and then go back to Kelantan to vote. This is to make sure that PAS can retain Kelantan.
Umno can, therefore, call these voters PAS’s phantom voters.
So PAS and Umno are actually cleverer at this game than DAP or PKR. DAP and PKR lump their voters in one place. Hence they win large majorities. PAS and Umno shift their voters and spread them out strategically. Hence with lesser votes they can win more seats whereas the reverse would happen for PKR and DAP.
But why did DAP win more seats than PAS? Well that is because PAS, PKR and Umno are sharing the 60% Malay votes while DAP monopolises the Chinese voters. Hence DAP gets more than 90% of the Chinese votes (in some saluran it was actually 100%, which shocked Umno) while PAS, PKR and Umno have to split the 60% Malay voters three ways.
And this is what concerns Umno. Umno can see that DAP now has a monopoly on the Chinese votes whereas Umno needs to compete with PAS and PKR for a share of the Malay votes.
Nevertheless, while Umno has to share the Malay votes with PAS and PKR, Umno won 88 seats versus 51 for PAS and PKR. And not all PKR seats are Malay seats. Some are Chinese/Indian seats. Hence, if you minus these seats, then Umno won 2:1 versus PAS and PKR.
By this act of cheating they turned the brightest hour in our nation’s history into its darkest.
But last night YOU responded. Hundreds of thousands Malaysians from all races and walks of life, young and old – came to Stadium Kelana Jaya to show your outrage against the injustice and fraud. You showed courage and determination. You braved the traffic jams, walked kilometres and stood in the pouring rain because you believe your cause is a noble one.
You were peaceful. You showed your allegiance to the Yang diPertuan Agong and sang the national anthem with pride. You demonstrated clearly that we are a nation united as Bangsa Malaysia.
Some say that you gathered because you cannot accept defeat. This is a gross insult and lie. The truth is that your victory has been stolen from you. It is they who cannot accept defeat and who have resorted to cheating to stay in power. You are on the side of truth and truth will triumph over falsehood.
You have every right to be outraged that your vote for change has been hijacked. You have every right to feel hurt and insulted by the accusations of being ungrateful and greedy just because you voted for Pakatan.
Factions are endemic to the politics of democratic parties. A survey of party politics in the democratic world would confirm this to be true.
Even in nations facing grave peril to their national security, there are factions within parties that are in contention with rival parties for the right to rule their imperiled polities.
Hence wise is the leadership of democratic parties that seeks to co-opt factions rather than ostracise or ban them. “Come, come, let us reason together” would be a more constructive guide in the placation of party factions than a hortatory “You are out of order, so put up or shut up.”
The best way to tackle the latest irruption of factional politics in PKR is to allow deputy president Azmin Ali’s side a full airing of their grievances against the top leadership of the party and against the style and content of Khalid Ibrahim’s stewardship as Selangor menteri besar.
In fact, if it’s true that there was no consultation within Selangor PKR in the prior commendation of an MB to the Palace, it’s best to admit the fault and assure the aggrieved that there would not be a repetition in the future.
Rather than ignore the fault, or worse, deny that there was one, this admission would help douse the embers of inter-factional strife and reduce the chances of their being fanned to a renewed blaze in another irruption sometime down the road.
Astute acceptance of the inevitability of factions affords wisdom in how to co-opt, cajole and divert them such that their periodic and inevitable irruption in a democratic party does not capsize but is contained by them, rather.
Bloodless Coup in Kelantan
Witness how Kelantan PAS has neatly done in Husam Musa, the star performer in the state executive council for at least half of the 23-year reign of just-retired Menteri Besar Nik Aziz Nik Mat.
The faction jealous of Husam’s position – jealousy is ineradicable in democratic political party affairs – could not discharge their rancour while his patron, Nik Aziz Nik Mat, was around.
The Tok Guru was too charismatic for the envious to do anything about Husam (left) who was head and shoulders – intellectually and morally – above the rest of the state executive council.
They bided their time, waited until Nik Aziz helped Kelantan PAS win their sixth successive general election before he called it a day, the latter thereby implicitly refuting criticism that he would hold on to power forever.
Nik Aziz held on for such a long time (22 years and six-and-a-half-months) because only a leader of his aura was able to keep UMNO at bay.
Depend upon it that if new MB Ahmad Yaakob cannot find another Husam to refresh and rejuvenate the administration and policies of PAS in Kelantan, UMNO will be back in power in the state at GE14.
And why not? In a democracy, no party should be allowed to rule uninterruptedly for anything as long as a quarter of a century, as Kelantan PAS would have when it completes its current sixth term at the helm in Kota Baru.
It is in the nature of a democracy to refresh and replenish its leadership and the ideas that animate it periodically. Over-extended rule by one party is a negation of the democratic process.
The way the faction in Kelantan PAS that’s now in power did in Husam is a classic example of a bloodless coup. They dispensed with the courtesy of informing him of a meeting – that’s one hell-of-a-feat of cooperation or, as one might say, complicity – to appoint the members of a new state executive council under a new MB, and confronted Husam with a fait accompli of a new set-up without a role for him and then implied that it was the palace that did not want him.
Meanwhile, the Palace is keeping its counsel on the matter while Husam has discounted the story of Palace interference as inherently incredible.
A Display of Ingratitude
One can say that the way the victorious faction in Kelantan PAS has behaved towards Husam, to whom the party owes so much, is a finessed display of ingratitude.
But then wasn’t it the Greek philosophic writer, Plutarch, who observed that ingratitude towards their great leaders is a mark of strong peoples?
The Kelantanese are an extraordinary people; just their production of people like Nik Aziz (right) and Husam is enough to prove the point – that, together with their people’s tendency to cock a snook against the federal government, makes them a remarkable people.
The past 23 years they have constituted a faction against the federal government and in the past few days, a certain faction within that overall one has pulled off a putsch against one of their better products.
One is almost tempted to say that factions are the lifeblood of democratic politics; let’s have more of them. But no, that would not be wise or true. It’s merely that factions are inevitable and if some conduct themselves with as much panache as the one that blindsided Husam, well what can you say!
As for Husam, one of the bright lights of the Malaysian political scene the last 15 years at least, the man has been far too intelligent a politician not to go with the drift of things, and not to bow and accept the end of a season.
Our mission is clear. We are no longer just campaigning. We are building a movement. We will protest against the fraud and this disgraceful act of denying the people their victory. We will bring together all Malaysians to fight to end corruption, racism and the abuse of power.
They are now playing with the fire of racism and hate-mongering and trying every means possible to intimidate you. As long as we stay united there is nothing to fear. Together we will show the illegitimate UMNO-BN government that our voice is not easy to silence. We will show them our resolve and the courage of our convictions. We will not stop until justice and victory is returned to us.
If you believe in this mission I give you my word that the Pakatan Rakyat is with you. We will stand firmly with you all the way. We will never surrender.
Thank you,
ANWAR IBRAHIM